Seeing What's Next: Using Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change

Seeing What's Next: Using Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change

Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D. Anthony

Language: English

Pages: 352

ISBN: 1591391857

Format: PDF / Kindle (mobi) / ePub


Every day, individuals take action based on how they believe innovation will change industries. Yet these beliefs are largely based on guesswork and incomplete data and lead to costly errors in judgment. Now, internationally renowned innovation expert Clayton M. Christensen and his research partners Scott D. Anthony and Erik A. Roth present a groundbreaking framework for predicting outcomes in the evolution of any industry. Based on proven theories outlined in Christensen's landmark books The Innovator's Dilemma and The Innovator's Solution, Seeing What's Next offers a practical, three-part model that helps decision-makers spot the signals of industry change, determine the outcome of competitive battles, and assess whether a firm's actions will ensure or threaten future success. Through in-depth case studies of industries from aviation to health care, the authors illustrate the predictive power of innovation theory in action.

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Of the way we train managers and do research about man agement—the belief that decisions should be grounded in solid analysis of data. The problem with this paradigm is that when managers attempt to do something that has not been done before, or when the future is going to be different from the past, the paradigm breaks down. Data is only available about the past. I then realized that with data or without it, every time managers take an action, and every time they look into the future, they use a.

Markets. Competition in some local markets in creased. The Internet boomed. Cable companies emerged as potential players in the local telephony market. But some factors limited success. Artificial motivation led to unanticipated consequences. Entrants en countered legacyinterdependencies; legalability did not immediatelyturn into technological ability. What approach would the model suggest? Perhaps the act should have been less sweeping, focusing on a single class of players rather than trying to.

Aturbulent industry. Paradoxically, they also contribute to the airlines' problems. They present opportunities for new companies to enter the industry. One ofthe first companies to enter behind the shield of asymmetric mo tivation was Southwest Airlines, which grew as a hybrid new-market/ low-end disruptor. Southwest: Disruptive Growth Through Replication with Limits Southwest built two shields that made incumbent response difficult: its point-to-point route structure and its low-cost.

Rate of almost 14 percent a year from 1960 to 2002.7 Today, the semiconductor industry consists of three distinct types of companies that participate in chip design and manufacturing. The first type of company, known as integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), does both design and manufacturing. The second type of company, known as foundries, focuses solely on manufacturing. Making a semi conductor is the one of the most complicated manufacturing processes the world has ever known, requiring more.

Circuits are awash in transistors they cannot use. The National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, a document produced by the Semiconductor 164 | ILLUSTRATIONS OF THEORY-BASED ANALYSIS Industry Association to assess the future technological requirements for the industry, noted this so-called design gap in the late 1990s.15 When the chips weren't even close to good enough for the market's needs, this design gap was nota problem. But when chips become more than good enough for the market's.

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